"People simply do not understand numbers, risk, or probability, and few things can make discussion between experts and laypeople more frustrating than this "innumeracy," as the mathematician John Allen Paulos memorably called it. For people who believe flying is dangerous, there will never be enough safe landings to outweigh the fear of the one crash. "Confronted with these large numbers and with the correspondingly small probabilities associated with them," Paulos wrote in 2001, "the innumerate will inevitably respond with the non sequitur, 'Yes, but what if you're that one,' and then nod knowingly, as if they've demolished your argument with their penetrating insight."4 Human"