"Investors should avoid any urge to forecast the stock market. Forecasts, even forecasts by recognized "experts," are unlikely to be better than random guesses. "It will fluctuate," declared J. P. Morgan when asked about his expectation for the stock market. He was right. All other market forecasts--usually estimating the overall direction of the stock market--are historically about 50 percent right and 50 percent wrong. You wouldn't bet much money on a coin toss, so don't even think of acting on stock market forecasts."