My opponent . . . what is he going to do? In game theory analysis the followers of eighteenth-century statistician Thomas Bayes hold that the world is made up of constantly changing knowledge, and in determining the probability of an event--what Zagaev was planning, in this case--you have to continually readjust your predictions as you learn new bits of information. The odds that he'll play rock, as opposed to paper or scissors, change from 331/3 percent, for instance, if you learn that your opponent has a muscle problem that makes it painful for him to form a fist. But