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| 371b28d | Also, even when people feel they know nothing, they typically know a bit and that bit should tip them away from maximum uncertainty, at least a bit. The astrophysicist J. Richard Gott shows us what forecasters should do when all they know is how long something--a civil war or a recession or an epidemic--has thus far lasted. The right thing is to adopt an attitude of "Copernican humility" and assume there is nothing special about the point i.. | Philip Tetlock |