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Pero por supuesto, eso depende de quien lo haga. Si lo hiciera Al Gore, podria conseguir un segundo premio Nobel de la Paz; si fuera Hugo Chavez, probablemente recibiria pronto una visita de los aviones de combate estadounidenses.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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5ef9a10
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cuando el gobierno ofrece a una mujer la oportunidad de tomar su propia decision acerca del aborto, ella suele preguntarse seriamente si se encuentra en posicion de criar a un hijo en condiciones. Si decide que no puede hacerlo, con frecuencia elige el aborto.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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afd1b3b
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Segun la Administracion Nacional de Seguridad de Trafico en Carreteras (NHTSA), mas del 80 por ciento de los asientos para ninos estan mal instalados.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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0d10322
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Un choque de automovil es un asunto violento, y pueden sucederle muchas cosas terribles a una masa de carne y hueso que se desplace a gran velocidad dentro de un objeto metalico y pesado que se para de repente.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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c8e4a32
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Una serie de estudios recientes ha demostrado que el personal de hospital se lava o desinfecta las manos en menos de la mitad de las ocasiones en que deberian hacerlo.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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b29b8ac
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el Instituto de Medicina calculaba que cada ano mueren entre 44.000 y 98.000 norteamericanos a causa de errores hospitalarios evitables --mas muertos que por accidentes de automovil o cancer de mama--, y que uno de los principales errores es la infeccion de heridas. ?La mejor medicina para evitar las infecciones? Hacer que los medicos se laven las manos con mas frecuencia.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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65fe5be
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Para evitar heridas graves, los cinturones de seguridad funcionaron, una vez mas, igual de bien que los asientos para ninos de dos a seis anos. Pero para heridas mas leves, los asientos funcionaron mejor, reduciendo la probabilidad de heridas aproximadamente un 25 por ciento en comparacion con los cinturones.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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d4b3a49
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Desde mediados de los anos sesenta hasta mediados de los noventa, la actividad ciclonica estuvo moderada por la oscilacion atlantica multidecenial, un ciclo climatico recurrente, de sesenta a ochenta anos de duracion, durante los cuales el oceano Atlantico se enfria poco a poco y despues se vuelve a calentar. El cambio de temperatura no es drastico, son solo un par de grados. Pero es suficiente para que no se produzcan huracanes durante los..
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Steven D. Levitt |
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83ed3f8
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prohibir a los medicos llevar corbata, porque, como ha observado el Departamento de Salud del Reino Unido, <>, <> y <>.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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0c5880f
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Por razones que Auvert y otros cientificos no comprenden del todo, se descubrio que la circuncision reduce el riesgo de transmision del VIH hasta en un 60 por ciento en los hombres heterosexuales.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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06bc2c5
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Decadas de estudios han demostrado que un nino que nace en un entorno familiar adverso tiene muchas mas probabilidades de convertirse en un delincuente.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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91d2e18
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Pero el simple hecho de que dos cosas guarden correlacion no implica que una sea la causa de la otra. Una correlacion significa, sencillamente, que existe una relacion entre dos factores --llamemoslos X e Y--, pero no explica el sentido de dicha relacion. Es posible que X cause Y; tambien es posible que Y cause X; y tambien lo es que tanto X como Y sean causadas por algun otro factor, Z.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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cc363bf
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riesgo = peligro + escandalo.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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Just as a warm and moist environment is conducive to the spread of deadly bacteria, the worlds of politics and business especially--with their long time frames, complex outcomes, and murky cause and effect--are conducive to the spread of half-cocked guesses posing as fact. And here's why: the people making these wild guesses can usually get away with it!
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Steven D. Levitt |
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d8c997a
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Norma McCorvey ejercio en la criminalidad un impacto mucho mayor que la suma del control de armas, una economia fuerte y unas estrategias policiales innovadoras.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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5c6567c
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Porque no hay nada como la pura fuerza de los numeros para retirar capas de confusion y contradiccion.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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1853a9f
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When asked to name the attributes of someone who is particularly bad at predicting, Tetlock needed just one word. "Dogmatism," he says. That is, an unshakable belief they know something to be true even when they don't."
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Steven D. Levitt |
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e46c862
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When people, especially politicians, start making decisions based on a reading of their moral compass, facts tend to be among the first casualties.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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6e0f515
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If asked how we'd behave in a situation that pits a private benefit against the greater good, most of us won't admit to favoring the private benefit. But as history clearly shows, most people, whether because of nature or nurture, generally put their own interests ahead of others'. This doesn't make them bad people; it just makes them human.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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c24f8c1
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It's easy to let your biases--political, intellectual, or otherwise--color your view of the world. A growing body of research suggests that even the smartest people tend to seek out evidence that confirms what they already think, rather than new information that would give them a more robust view of reality.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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44f577a
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For until you can admit what you don't yet know, it's virtually impossible to learn what you need to.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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295f763
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It isn't only that we know less than we pretend about the outside world; we don't even know ourselves all that well.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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b924262
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Just because you're great at something doesn't mean you're good at everything.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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e7bdb69
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Every time we pretend to know something, we are doing the same: protecting our own reputation rather than promoting the collective good. None of us want to look stupid, or at least overmatched, by admitting we don't know an answer. The incentives to fake it are simply too strong.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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29f7c42
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But when it comes to solving problems, one of the best ways to start is by putting away your moral compass. Why? When you are consumed with the rightness or wrongness of a given issue--whether it's fracking or gun control or genetically engineered food--it's easy to lose track of what the issue actually is. A moral compass can convince you that all the answers are obvious (even when they're not); that there is a bright line between right an..
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Steven D. Levitt |
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fafe95c
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History clearly shows, most people, whether because of nature or nurture, generally put their own interests ahead of others'. This doesn't make them bad people; it just makes them human.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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5a0b63c
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Y los millones de mujeres con mayores probabilidades de abortar tras el caso <> --madres pobres, solteras, adolescentes para quienes el aborto ilegal resultaba excesivamente costoso o inaccesible-- con frecuencia constituian ese modelo de adversidad. Eran esas mujeres cuyos hijos, en caso de nacer, tendrian muchas mas probabilidades que la media de convertirse en delincuentes. Pero como consecuencia del caso <
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Steven D. Levitt |
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f66b55c
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No fue el control de armas o un fuerte crecimiento economico o las nuevas estrategias policiales lo que finalmente atempero la ola de crimen en Estados Unidos. Fue, entre otros factores, el hecho de que la fuente de criminales potenciales se habia visto reducida de forma drastica.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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52dd8ce
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The more complex a problem is, the harder it is to capture good feedback. You can gather a lot of facts, and that may be helpful, but in order to reliably measure cause and effect you need to get beneath the facts. You may have to purposefully go out and create feedback through an experiment.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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7f0ab62
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If it takes a lot of courage to admit you don't know all the answers, just imagine how hard it is to admit you don't even know the right question. But if you ask the wrong question, you are almost guaranteed to get the wrong answer.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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6e7f864
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When you ask the question differently, you look for answers in different places.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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Here is the broader point: whatever problem you're trying to solve, make sure you're not just attacking the noisy part of the problem that happens to capture your attention. Before spending all your time and resources, it's incredibly important to properly define the problem--or, better yet, redefine the problem.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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6d53292
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That may not be a simple conversation. But when you are dealing with root causes, at least you know you are fighting the real problem and not just boxing with shadows.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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ab6a171
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Is it a good idea to pass along a family business to the next generation? (Sure, if your goal is to kill off the business--for the data show it's generally better to bring in an outside manager.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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32fcdeb
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Is distinctive black culture the cause of economic disparity between whites and blacks or merely the reflection of it?
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inequality
racism
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Steven D. Levitt |
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8052bfe
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Los gusanos nunca estan satisfechos, no importa la cantidad de comida que les des>>,
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Steven D. Levitt |
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218794d
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Perhaps the most dramatic effect of legalized abortion, however, and one that would take years to reveal itself, was its impact on crime. In the early 1990s, just as the first cohort of children born after Roe v. Wade was hitting its late teen years--the years during which young men enter their criminal prime--the rate of crime began to fall. What this cohort was missing, of course, were the children who stood the greatest chance of becomin..
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Steven D. Levitt |
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ac940fe
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As with most bad behaviors, drunk driving could probably be wiped out entirely if a strong-enough incentive were instituted--random roadblocks, for instance, where drunk drivers are executed on the spot--but our society probably doesn't have the appetite for that.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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71a492c
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Married people, for instance, are demonstrably happier than single people; does this mean that marriage causes happiness? Not necessarily. The data suggest that happy people are more likely to get married in the first place. As one researcher memorably put it, "If you're grumpy, who the hell wants to marry you?"
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Steven D. Levitt |
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6f877c3
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The theme of Smith's first book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, was the innate honesty of mankind. "How selfish soever man may be supposed," Smith wrote, "there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasure of seeing it."
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Steven D. Levitt |
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6caf350
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Las conductas social y economica, anade, <
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Steven D. Levitt |
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a3d4e07
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Quiza resulte triste, pero para nada sorprendente, descubrir que expertos como Snyder son capaces de actuar en beneficio propio hasta el punto de enganar. Pero no pueden enganar solos. Los medios de comunicacion necesitan a los expertos tanto como los expertos a los medios.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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13f31ce
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There is nothing like the sheer power of numbers to scrub away layers of confusion and contradiction.
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Steven D. Levitt |
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df90082
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How selfish soever man may be supposed," Smith wrote, "there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasure of seeing it." There"
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Steven D. Levitt |