|
f776ad9
|
We may shed tears on election night when the other side wins, but we do not consider such an event apocalyptic. Put another way, mutual toleration is politicians' collective willingness to agree to disagree.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
ba5654e
|
The norms sustaining our political system rested, to a considerable degree, on racial exclusion. The stability of the period between the end of Reconstruction and the 1980s was rooted in an original sin: the Compromise of 1877 and its aftermath, which permitted the de-democratization of the South and the consolidation of Jim Crow.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
5b4c7ec
|
The device the founders came up with was the Electoral College. Article II of the Constitution created an indirect election system that reflected Hamilton's thinking in Federalist 68:
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
6e57919
|
A comparative approach also reveals how elected autocrats in different parts of the world employ remarkably similar strategies to subvert democratic institutions. As these patterns become visible, the steps toward breakdown grow less ambiguous--and easier to combat. Knowing how citizens in other democracies have successfully resisted elected autocrats, or why they tragically failed to do so, is essential to those seeking to defend American ..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
7ee8b5f
|
Isolating popular extremists requires political courage. But when fear, opportunism, or miscalculation leads established parties to bring extremists into the mainstream, democracy is imperiled.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
cefdfa0
|
By 1936, Spain's nascent democracy had degenerated into a civil war.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
1df7fee
|
After opposition parties won control of the Venezuelan congress in a landslide election in December 2015, they hoped to use the legislature to check the power of autocratic president Nicolas Maduro. Thus, the new congress passed an amnesty law that would free 120 political prisoners, and it voted to block Maduro's declaration of a state of economic emergency (which granted him vast power to govern by decree). To fend off this challenge, Mad..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
ecca8d1
|
North Carolina offers a window into what politics without guardrails looks like - and a possible glimpse into America's future. When partisan rivals become enemies, political competition descends into warfare, and our institutions turn into weapons. The result is a system hovering constantly on the brink of crisis.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
93d0c44
|
Norms are the soft guardrails of democracy; as they break down, the zone of acceptable political behavior expands, giving rise to discourse and action that could imperil democracy. Behavior that was once considered unthinkable in American politics is becoming thinkable. Even if Donald Trump does not break the hard guardrails of our constitutional democracy, he has increased the likelihood that a future president will.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
07d8047
|
In 1993, New York's Democratic senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a former social scientist, made an incisive observation: Humans have a limited ability to cope with people behaving in ways that depart from shared standards. When unwritten rules are violated over and over, Moynihan observed, societies have a tendency to 'define deviancy down' - to shift the standard. What was once seen as abnormal becomes normal.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
340f734
|
Just as divine-right monarchies required forbearance, so do democracies. Think of democracy as a game that we want to keep playing indefinitely. To ensure future rounds of the game, players must refrain from either incapacitating the other team or antagonizing them to such a degree, that they refuse to play again tomorrow. If one's rivals quit, there can be no future games. This means that although individuals play to win, they must do so w..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
e58dbd6
|
Governments that cannot remove independent judges may bypass them through court packing. In Hungary, for instance, the Orban government expanded the size of the Constitutional Court from eight to fifteen, changed the nomination rules so that the ruling Fidesz party could single-handedly appoint the new justices, and then filled the new positions with Fidesz loyalists.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
bc97416
|
In February 2010, the Constitutional Court struck down Uribe's bid for a third term as unconstitutional, forcing him to step down after two terms. The lesson is this: Where institutional channels exist, opposition groups should use them.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
ba4a119
|
When norms of mutual toleration are weak, democracy is hard to sustain. If we view our rivals as a dangerous threat, we have much to fear if they are elected. We may decide to employ any means necessary to defeat them - and therein lies a justification for authoritarian measures. Politicians who are tagged as criminal or subversive may be jailed; governments deemed to pose a threat to the nation may be overthrown.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
05a1c36
|
In Poland, the governing Law and Justice Party had several of its initiatives blocked by the Constitutional Tribunal--the country's highest authority on constitutional matters--between 2005 and 2007. When the party returned to power in 2015, it took steps to avoid similar losses in the future. At the time, there were two openings in the fifteen-member Constitutional Tribunal and three justices who were approved by the outgoing parliament bu..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
6866e5f
|
In 1999, the Chavez government called elections for a constituent assembly that, in violation of an earlier supreme court ruling, awarded itself the power to dissolve all other state institutions, including the court.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
159e31f
|
How do elected authoritarians shatter the democratic institutions that are supposed to constrain them? Some do it in one fell swoop. But more often the assault on democracy begins slowly. For many citizens, it may, at first, be imperceptible. After all, elections continue to be held. Opposition politicians still sit in congress. Independent newspapers still circulate. Each individual step seems minor - none appears to truly threaten democra..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
ab466dc
|
It was not unusual for figures such as Coughlin, Long, McCarthy, and Wallace to gain the support of a sizable minority - 30 or even 40 percent - of the country. We often tell ourselves that America's national political culture in some way immunizes us from such appeals, but this requires reading history with rose-colored glasses. The real protection against would-be authoritarians has not been Americans' firm commitment to democracy but, ra..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
f3e277e
|
Many Americans are justifiably frightened by what is happening to our country. But protecting our democracy requires more than just fright or outrage. We must be humble and bold. We must learn from other countries to see the warning signs - and recognize the false alarms. We must be aware of the fateful missteps that have wrecked other democracies. And we must see how citizens have risen to meet the great democratic crises of the past, over..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
6d208ae
|
The easiest way to deal with potential opponents is to buy them off. Most elected autocrats begin by offering leading political, business, or media figures public positions, favors, perks, or outright bribes in exchange for their support or, at least, their quiet neutrality. Cooperative media outlets may gain privileged access to the president, while friendly business executives may receive profitable concessions or government contracts.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
a3231aa
|
Under Peron, opposition leader Ricardo Balbin was imprisoned for "disrespecting" the president during an election campaign. Balbin appealed to the supreme court, but since Peron had packed the court, he stood no chance."
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
d7caab5
|
We know that extremist demagogues emerge from time to time in all societies, even in healthy democracies. The United States has had its share of them, including Henry Ford, Huey Long, Joseph McCarthy, and George Wallace. An essential test for democracies is not whether such figures emerge but whether political leaders, and especially political parties, work to prevent them from gaining power in the first place - by keeping them off mainstre..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
4e118f8
|
Blatant dictatorships - in the form of fascism, communism, or military rule - has disappeared across much of the world. Military coups and other violent seizures of power are rare. Most countries hold regular elections. Democracies still die, but by different means. Since the end of the Cold War, most democratic breakdowns have been caused not by generals and soldiers but by elected governments themselves. Like Chavez in Venezuela, elected ..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
4eee785
|
The second category in our litmus test is the denial of the legitimacy of one's opponents. Authoritarian politicians cast their rivals as criminal, subversive, unpatriotic, or a threat to national security or the existing way of life. Trump met this criterion, as well. For one, he had been a "birther," challenging the legitimacy of Barack Obama's presidency by suggesting that he was born in Kenya and that he was a Muslim, which many of his ..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
94636be
|
Even if Democrats were to succeed in weakening or removing President Trump via hardball tactics, their victory would be Pyrrhic--for they would inherit a democracy stripped of its remaining protective guardrails.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
ca9ae4f
|
Many Americans are justifiably frightened by what is happening to our country. But protecting our democracy requires more than just fright or outrage. We must be humble and bold. We must learn from other countries to see the warning signs--and recognize the false alarms. We must be aware of the fateful missteps that have wrecked other democracies. And we must see how citizens have risen to meet the great democratic crises of the past, overc..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
50b463c
|
Public support is a useful tool in this regard. When an elected leader enjoys, say, a 70 percent approval rating, critics jump on the bandwagon, media coverage softens, judges grow more reluctant to rule against the government, and even rival politicians, worried that strident opposition will leave them isolated, tend to keep their heads down.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
64543d5
|
By contrast, when the government's approval rating is low, media and opposition grow more brazen, judges become emboldened to stand up to the president, and allies begin to dissent.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
cbbe793
|
The higher President Trump's approval rating, the more dangerous he is.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
1666cf3
|
We fear that if Trump were to confront a war or terrorist attack, he would exploit this crisis fully--using it to attack political opponents and restrict freedoms Americans take for granted. In our view, this scenario represents the greatest danger facing American democracy today.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
b97c81e
|
In Mexico, after the losing presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, insisted that the 2006 election was stolen from him, confidence in Mexico's electoral system declined.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
8d11b4e
|
A poll taken prior to the 2012 presidential election found that 71 percent of Mexicans believed that fraud could be in play.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
301de0a
|
Under President Trump, America has been defining political deviancy down. The president's routine use of personal insult, bullying, lying, and cheating has, inevitably, helped to normalize such practices.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
060c87c
|
Norms are the soft guardrails of democracy; as they break down, the zone of acceptable political behavior expands, giving rise to discourse and action that could imperil democracy.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
21e47a3
|
A stunning 385 filibusters were initiated between 2007 and 2012--equal to the total number of filibusters in the seven decades between World War I and the end of the Reagan administration.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
58e8b96
|
In an op-ed in the Lexington Herald Leader, Mitch McConnell urged states to ignore Obama's regulatory order limiting greenhouse gas emissions. It was a stunning undermining of federal authority.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
01f1c4a
|
As we noted earlier, the chief executive's constitutional power to pardon is without limit,
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
10de3f3
|
but presidents have historically exercised it with great restraint, seeking advice from the Justice Department and never issuing pardons for self-protection or political gain.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
8705737
|
The Trump administration also mounted efforts to sideline key players in the political system. President Trump's rhetorical attacks on critics in the media are an example. His repeated accusations that outlets such as the New York Times and CNN were dispensing "fake news" and conspiring against him look familiar to any student of authoritarianism."
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
37a0f30
|
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa used this approach. His multimillion-dollar defamation suits and jailing of journalists on charges of defamation had a powerfully chilling effect on the media.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
3188ec0
|
The plan was reminiscent of the Chavez government's repeated moves to strip opposition-run city governments of their control over local hospitals, police forces, ports, and other infrastructure. Unlike the Venezuelan president, however, President Trump was blocked by the courts.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
1486b09
|
This is precisely what happened, as we have already noted, in Paraguay in 2012 with the two-day "quickie" impeachment of Fernando Lugo, and in Ecuador in 1997 with the removal of Abdala Bucaram on bogus grounds of "mental incapacity." In these cases, impeachment was weaponized--the leaders of congress used it to remove a president they didn't like."
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
9a3088d
|
In many ways, President Trump followed the electoral authoritarian script during his first year. He made efforts to capture the referees, sideline the key players who might halt him, and tilt the playing field. But the president has talked more than he has acted, and his most notorious threats have not been realized. Troubling antidemocratic initiatives, including packing the FBI with loyalists and blocking the Mueller investigation, were d..
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |
|
2f7ba07
|
Scorched-earth tactics often erode support for the opposition by scaring off moderates. And they unify progovernment forces, as even dissidents within the incumbent party close ranks in the face of an uncompromising opposition.
|
|
|
Steven Levitsky |