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94d01a4
|
I couldn't claim that I was smarter than sixty-five other guys--but the average of sixty-five other guys, certainly!
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humor
intelligence
statistics
mathematics
|
Richard P. Feynman |
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60f75a0
|
Above all else show the data.
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graphics
statistics
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Edward R. Tufte |
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559570b
|
One of the first things taught in introductory statistics textbooks is that correlation is not causation. It is also one of the first things forgotten.
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correlation
statistics
|
Thomas Sowell |
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488beb7
|
"Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store."
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probability
statistics
math
luck
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Leonard Mlodinow |
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cc7b70c
|
More data means more information, but it also means more false information.
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statistics
|
Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
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7e4a297
|
If I want to understand an individual human being, I must lay aside all scientific knowledge of the average man and discard all theories in order to adopt a completely new and unprejudiced attitude. I can only approach the task of understanding with a free and open mind, whereas knowledge of man, or insight into human character, presupposes all sorts of knowledge about mankind in general.
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humanity
philosophy
non-duality
individualism
society
statistics
knowledge
wholeness
psychology
|
C.G. Jung |
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e170bb9
|
Baseball is a soap opera that lends itself to probabilistic thinking. [Dick Cramer]
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statistics
sports
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Michael Lewis |
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8f24e5f
|
"Convincing - and confident - disciplines, say, physics, tend to use little statistical backup, while political science and economics, which have never produced anything of note, are full of elaborate statistics and statistical "evidence" (and you know that once you remove the smoke, the evidence is not evidence)."
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science
statistics
|
Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
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9d2a5c1
|
A certain elementary training in statistical method is becoming as necessary for everyone living in this world of today as reading and writing.
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statistics
mathematics
|
H.G. Wells |
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f674096
|
When moral posturing is replaced by an honest assessment of the data, the result is often a new, surprising insight.
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statistics
|
Steven D. Levitt |
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447ab9a
|
"Information or allegations reflecting negatively on individuals or groups seen less sympathetically by the intelligentsia pass rapidly into the public domain with little scrutiny and much publicity. Two of the biggest proven hoaxes of our time have involved allegations of white men gang-raping a black woman-- first the Tawana Brawley hoax of 1987 and later the false rape charges against three Duke University students in 2006. In both cases, editorial indignation rang out across the land, without a speck of evidence to substantiate either of these charges. Moreover, the denunciations were not limited to the particular men accused, but were often extended to society at large, of whom these men were deemed to be symptoms or 'the tip of the iceberg.' In both cases, the charges fit a pre-existing vision, and that apparently made mundane facts unnecessary. Another widely publicized hoax-- one to which the President of the United States added his sub-hoax-- was a 1996 story appearing in under the headline, 'Arson at Black Churches Echoes Bigotry of the Past.' There was, according to , 'an epidemic of church burning,' targeting black churches. Like the gang-rape hoaxes, this story spread rapidly through the media. The referred to 'an epidemic of criminal and cowardly arson' leaving black churches in ruins. As with the gang-rape hoaxes, comments on the church fire stories went beyond those who were supposed to have set these fires to blame forces at work in society at large. Jesse Jackson was quoted was quoted in the as calling these arsons part of a 'cultural conspiracy' against blacks, which 'reflected the heightened racial tensions in the south that have been exacerbated by the assault on affirmative action and the populist oratory of Republican politicians like Pat Buchanan.' magazine writer Jack White likewise blamed 'the coded phrases' of Republican leaders for 'encouraging the arsonists.' Columnist Barbara Reynolds of said that the fires were 'an attempt to murder the spirit of black America.' columnist Bob Herbert said, "The fuel for these fires can be traced to a carefully crafted environment of bigotry and hatred that was developed over the last century.' As with the gang-rape hoaxes, the charges publicized were taken as reflecting on the whole society, not just those supposedly involved in what was widely presumed to be arson, rather than fires that break out for a variety of other reasons. columnist Dorothy Gilliam said that society in effect was 'giving these arsonists permission to commit these horrible crimes.' The climax of these comments came when President Bill Clinton, in his weekly radio address, said that these church burnings recalled similar burnings of black churches in Arkansas when he was a boy. There were more that 2,000 media stories done on the subject after the President's address. This story began to unravel when factual research showed that (1) black churches were burned in Arkansas when Bill Clinton was growing up, (2) there had been no increase in fires at black churches, but an actual decrease over the previous 15 years, (3) the incidence of fires at white churches was similar to the incidence of fires at black churches, and (4) where there was arson, one-third of the suspects were black. However, retractions of the original story-- where there were retractions at all-- typically were given far less prominence than the original banner headlines and heated editorial comments."
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|
arson
dorothy-gilliam
duke-university
media-manipulation
rape-myth
jesse-jackson
collectivism
intelligentsia
bill-clinton
bigotry
new-york-times
liberalism
statistics
rape-culture
media
leftism
|
Thomas Sowell |
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4ea4ac3
|
Researchers may have some conscious or unconscious bias, either because of a strongly held prior belief or because a positive finding would be better for their career. (No one ever gets rich or famous by proving what doesn't cause cancer.)
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science
statistics
|
Charles Wheelan |
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2071d7c
|
Skepticism is always a good first response.
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statistics
|
Charles Wheelan |
|
4905e4a
|
Fire, knives, automobiles, hair removal cream. Each of these things serves an important purpose. Each one makes our lives better. And each one can cause some serious problems when abused. Now you can add statistics to that list.
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statistics
|
Charles Wheelan |
|
0293e1e
|
While most of us are comfortable acknowledging that luck plays a role in what we do, we have difficulty assessing its role after the fact. Once something has occurred and we can put together a story to explain it, it starts to seem like the outcome was predestined. Statistics don't appeal to our need to understand cause and effect, which is why they are so frequently ignored or misinterpreted. Stories, on the other hand, are a rich means to communicate precisely because they emphasize cause and effect.
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probability
statistics
|
Michael J. Mauboussin |
|
fecee98
|
A statistical anomaly does not prove wrongdoing. Delma Kinney, a fifty-year-old Atlanta man, won $1 million in an instant lottery in 2008 and then another $1 million in an instant game in 2011. The probability of that happening to the same person is somewhere in the range of 1 in 25 trillion.
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statistics
|
Charles Wheelan |
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9400510
|
Data are to statistics what a good offensive is to a star quarterback.
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statistics
|
Charles Wheelan |