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| Link | Quote | Stars | Tags | Author |
| e4c887e | A theory is like medicine (or government): often useless, sometimes necessary, always self-serving, and on occasion lethal. So it needs to be used with care, moderation, and close adult supervision. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| c91dd9b | Clearly, binary outcomes are not very prevalent in life; they mostly exist in laboratory experiments and in research papers. In life, payoffs are usually open-ended, or, at least, variable. | life laboratory-experiments open-ended payoffs research-papers variable | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | |
| 87d39fb | On a folded piece of paper, in turn, each one of them would write a predetermined part of a sentence, not knowing the others' choice. The first would pick an adjective, the second a noun, the third a verb, the fourth an adjective, and the fifth a noun. The first publicized exercise of such random (and collective) arrangement produced the following poetic sentence: The exquisite cadavers shall drink the new wine. (Les cadavres exquis boiront.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 36e13de | la accion del Cisne Negro se situa en Extremistan, no es mas que una mera aproximacion; les ruego que no la platonifiquen, no la simplifiquemos mas de lo que sea necesario. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 9a768d7 | Pero hay otros problemas que surgen de nuestra ceguera ante el Cisne Negro: a) Nos centramos en segmentos preseleccionados de lo visto, y a partir de ahi generalizamos en lo no visto: el error de la confirmacion. b) Nos enganamos con historias que sacian nuestra sed platonica de modelos distintos: la falacia narrativa. c) Nos comportamos como si el Cisne Negro no existiera: la naturaleza humana no esta programada para los Cisnes Negros. d) .. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 40b9337 |
Los Cisnes Negros que imaginamos, de los que hablamos y nos preocupamos no se parecen a los que previsiblemente son Cisnes Negros. Como veremos a continuacion, nos preocupamos de los sucesos < |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 59c54fe | people look for books that support their mental program. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| ffa882f | had to rely on messenger services. So a local | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 6e0fee2 | Yet there may not be a visible because; to the contrary, frequently there is nothing, not even a spectrum of possible explanations. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| df86093 | Capitalism is, among other things, the revitalization of the world thanks to the opportunity to be lucky. Luck is the grand equalizer, because almost everyone can benefit from it. The socialist governments protected their monsters and, by doing so, killed potential newcomers in the womb. Everything is transitory. Luck both made and unmade Carthage; it both made and unmade Rome. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 84866e3 | It is a fallacy that suicide bombers are driven by the promise of a reward of some Islamic paradise with virgins and other entertainment, for, as the anthropologist Scott Atran has pointed out, the first suicide bombers in the Levant were revolutionaries of Greek Orthodox background--my tribe--not Islamists. There is something like a switch in us that kills the individual in favor of the collective when people engage in communal dances, mas.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| e45fa32 | Antifragile shows how people confuse risk of ruin with variations and fluctuations--a simplification that violates a deeper, more rigorous logic of things. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| cfe9d18 | Noi, membrii varietatii umane a primatelor, suntem insetati de reguli, deoarece trebuie sa reducem dimensiunile problemelor astfel incat acestea sa incapa in capul nostru. Sau, din pacate, asa incat sa le putem inghesui in cap. Cu cat informatia are un grad mai mare de aleatoriu, cu atat dimensiunile sale sunt mai mari si, astfel, mai greu de sintetizat. Cu cat sintetizam mai mult, cu cat facem mai multa ordine in informatie, cu atat este m.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 7a0973a | Infruntati-va destinul. M-am obisnuit sa rezist tentatiei de a alerga pentru a-mi respecta orarul. Poate fi un sfat neimportant, dar s-a dovedit valabil. Refuzand sa alerg pentru a prinde trenuri, am simtit adevarata valoare a elegantei si a esteticii in comportament, o senzatie a detinerii in permanenta a controlului asupra timpului, programului si vietii mele. Pierderea trenului este dureroasa doar daca alergi dupa el! In mod similar, a n.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 381c1bc | Atat demersurile artistice, cat si cele stiintifice sunt produsul nevoii noastre de a reduce dimensiunile si de a impune lucrurilor o ordine. Ganditi-va la lumea din jur, incarcata de trilioane de detalii. Incercati sa o descrieti si va veti da seama ca sunteti tentat sa teseti o panza cu ce spuneti. Un roman, o poveste, un mit sau un basm -- toate au aceeasi functie: ne scutesc de complexitatea lumii si ne pun la adapost de aleatoriul care.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 0b9b614 | Notice that close to two centuries ago people had an idealized opinion of their own past, just as we have an idealized opinion of today's past. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 290eecd | The entire notion of biography is grounded in the arbitrary ascription of a causal relation between specified traits and subsequent events. Now consider the cemetery. The graveyard of failed persons will be full of people who shared the following traits: courage, risk taking, optimism, et cetera. Just like the population of millionaires. There may be some differences in skills, but what truly separates the two is for the most part a single .. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 12d76a3 | Those who use foul language on social networks (such as Twitter) are sending an expensive signal that they are free--and, ironically, competent. You don't signal competence if you don't take risks for it--there are few such low-risk strategies. So cursing today is a status symbol, just as oligarchs in Moscow wear blue jeans at special events to signal their power. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| a18a66e | Daca faci o proiectie pe baza trecutului in mod liniar, continui o tendinta. Dar posibilele devieri viitoare de la cursul trecutului sunt infinite. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 3c751a0 | We do not spontaneously learn that we don't learn that we don't learn. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| a249f8c | Clearly you cannot manufacture more information than the past can deliver; if you buy one hundred copies of The New York Times, I am not too certain that it would help you gain incremental knowledge of the future. We just don't know how much information there is in the past. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 4db8b24 | On alternative histories, a probabilistic view of the world, intellectual fraud, and the randomness wisdom of a Frenchman with steady bathing habits. How journalists are bred to not understand random series of events. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| dd1f016 |
Como se supone que dijo Stalin (que algo sabia sobre la mortalidad): < |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| ce92df0 | When people get rich, they shed their skin-in-the-game-driven experiential mechanism. They lose control of their preferences, substituting constructed preferences for their own, complicating their lives unnecessarily, triggering their own misery. | wealth rich misery | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | |
| 7edca28 | My experience is that money and transactions purify relations; ideas and abstract matters like "recognition" and "credit" warp them, creating an atmosphere of perpetual rivalry. I grew to find people greedy for credentials nauseating, repulsive, and untrustworthy." | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| dc45c96 | Robert Rubin, a former Secretary of the United States Treasury, one of those who sign their names on the banknote you just used to pay for coffee, collected more than $120 million in compensation from Citibank in the decade preceding the banking crash of 2008. When the bank, literally insolvent, was rescued by the taxpayer, he didn't write any check--he invoked uncertainty as an excuse. Heads he wins, tails he shouts "Black Swan." Nor did R.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| d3a5d71 | But we have evidence that collectively society doesn't advance with organized education, rather the reverse: the level of (formal) education in a country is the result of wealth.*2 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 00ecf12 | Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 5dadb5f | La forma de evitar los males de la falacia narrativa es favorecer la experimentacion sobre la narracion, la experiencia sobre la historia y el conocimiento clinico sobre las teorias. Es evidente que un periodico no puede realizar un experimento, pero puede escoger una noticia u otra --hay muchos estudios empiricos que presentar y que pueden ser interpretados--, como yo hago en este libro. Ser empirico no significa dirigir un laboratorio en .. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 46b2b46 | Frederic Dard, Libanius Antiochus, Michael Oakeshott, John Gray, Ammianus Marcellinus, Ibn Battuta, Saadia Gaon, or Joseph de Maistre; he | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 981ac1f | Am spus ca se pare ca avem o inclinatie naturala spre platonificare si spre a gandi in termenii materialelor studiate: nimeni, fie el zidar sau filosof al naturii, nu poate scapa prea usor de aservirea fata de aceste conditionari. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| c165fc0 | Asta este, probabil, adevarata incredere in sine: abilitatea de a privi lumea fara a simti nevoia sa gasim semne care sa ne maguleasca. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 509a85d | We glorify those who left their names in history books at the expense of those contributors about whom our books are silent. We humans are not just a superficial race (this may be curable to some extent); we are a very unfair one. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| a2f63f5 | There is more money in designing a shoe than in actually making it: Nike, Dell, and Boeing can get paid for just thinking, organizing, and leveraging their know-how and ideas while subcontracted factories in developing countries do the grunt work and engineers in cultured and mathematical states do the noncreative technical grind | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| d98dd9e | if something is fragile, its risk of breaking makes anything you do to improve it or make it "efficient" inconsequential unless you first reduce that risk of breaking." | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 406baff | Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking enormous (and unconscious) risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 0802937 | What the French call "the caviar left," la gauche caviar, or what Anglo-Saxons call champagne socialists, are people who advocate socialism, sometimes even communism, or some political system with sumptuary limitations, while overtly leading a lavish lifestyle, often financed by inheritance--not realizing the contradiction that they want others to avoid just such a lifestyle. It is not too different from the womanizing popes, such as John X.. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 0d3916f | The fallacy is that what one may need to know in the real world does not necessarily match what one can perceive through intellect: it doesn't mean that details are not relevant, only that those we tend (IYI-style) to believe are important can distract us from more central attributes of the price mechanism. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 2fe9a06 | experiments have shown that players rely on several heuristics. The gaze heuristic is the simplest one and works if the ball is already high up in the air: Fix your gaze on the ball, start running, and adjust your running speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 48694b7 | The theory is the child of the cure, not the opposite--ex cura theoria nascitur. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 59e28a8 | Este mult mai dificil sa pierzi intr-un joc pe care l-ai pus la punct tu insuti. | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| 99fed81 | what you see is likely to be less Black Swannish than what you do not see. | seen unseen unknown | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | |
| f6940ee | those who are very good at predicting the past will think of themselves as good at predicting the future, | Nassim Nicholas Taleb | ||
| f391316 | The French thinker and poet Paul Valery was surprised to listen to a commentary of his poems that found meanings that had until then escaped him (of course, it was pointed out to him that these were intended by his subconscious). | Nassim Nicholas Taleb |